DECLINING MORTALITY BUT PERSISTENT DISPARITIES IN ACUTE INTESTINAL VASCULAR DISORDERS: A 25-YEAR CDC WONDER ANALYSIS WITH FORECAST TO 2040
DDW ePoster Library. Ashraf H. 05/02/26; 4197845; Su1323
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Abstract
Discussion Forum (0)
BACKGROUND:
Acute intestinal vascular disorders (AIVDs) are uncommon but highly fatal events caused by abrupt interruption of intestinal blood flow. Their nonspecific symptoms(nausea, vomiting, and abdominal pain) often delay diagnosis, leading to poor outcomes, particularly in older adults. Despite advances in imaging and critical care, long-term mortality patterns remain underexplored. This study evaluates 25-year mortality trends and demographic disparities in AIVD-related deaths in the United States using CDC WONDER data from 1999–2023.
METHODS:
AIVD-related deaths (ICD-10 K55.0) among adults aged ≥25 years were extracted from the CDC WONDER Single Cause of Death database (1999–2023). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 population were calculated and stratified by year, sex, race/ethnicity, and U.S. Census region. Temporal trends were evaluated using Joinpoint Regression to calculate annual percent change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals. Statistical significance was defined as p < 0.05. Mortality forecasts were generated using an exponential smoothing (ETS) model.
RESULTS:
A total of 50,861 AIVD-related deaths occurred in the United States from 1999–2023. The AAMR declined from 2.24 (95% CI: 2.23–2.25) to 0.49 (95% CI: 0.48–0.50), with projections suggesting a continued decline approaching zero by 2040. Females consistently demonstrated higher mortality than males (2.48 vs. 1.89 in 1999; 0.54 vs. 0.42 in 2023) and showed a significant decline from 2001–2015 (APC: –7.27%; p = 0.004). Black individuals exhibited the highest overall AAMR (1.004) but experienced a significant decline from 2007–2019 (APC: –5.8%; p = 0.018). Non-Hispanic individuals showed a significant early decline from 1999–2001 (APC: –12.21%; p = 0.00). Regionally, the Midwest reported the highest AAMR (1.07), followed by the South (1.02), West (0.92), and Northeast (0.83). Large fringe metropolitan areas demonstrated a significant decline from 1999–2014 (APC: –8.17%; p = 0.00). State-level AAMRs ranged from 1.46 in Wyoming to 0.83 in Maryland.
CONCLUSION:
AIVD-related mortality in the United States has declined substantially over the past 25 years, likely reflecting improvements in diagnostic recognition and therapeutic strategies. Persistent demographic, geographic, and urbanization-related disparities highlight the need for targeted preventive interventions and equitable access to advanced diagnostic resources for high-risk populations.
Acute intestinal vascular disorders (AIVDs) are uncommon but highly fatal events caused by abrupt interruption of intestinal blood flow. Their nonspecific symptoms(nausea, vomiting, and abdominal pain) often delay diagnosis, leading to poor outcomes, particularly in older adults. Despite advances in imaging and critical care, long-term mortality patterns remain underexplored. This study evaluates 25-year mortality trends and demographic disparities in AIVD-related deaths in the United States using CDC WONDER data from 1999–2023.
METHODS:
AIVD-related deaths (ICD-10 K55.0) among adults aged ≥25 years were extracted from the CDC WONDER Single Cause of Death database (1999–2023). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 population were calculated and stratified by year, sex, race/ethnicity, and U.S. Census region. Temporal trends were evaluated using Joinpoint Regression to calculate annual percent change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals. Statistical significance was defined as p < 0.05. Mortality forecasts were generated using an exponential smoothing (ETS) model.
RESULTS:
A total of 50,861 AIVD-related deaths occurred in the United States from 1999–2023. The AAMR declined from 2.24 (95% CI: 2.23–2.25) to 0.49 (95% CI: 0.48–0.50), with projections suggesting a continued decline approaching zero by 2040. Females consistently demonstrated higher mortality than males (2.48 vs. 1.89 in 1999; 0.54 vs. 0.42 in 2023) and showed a significant decline from 2001–2015 (APC: –7.27%; p = 0.004). Black individuals exhibited the highest overall AAMR (1.004) but experienced a significant decline from 2007–2019 (APC: –5.8%; p = 0.018). Non-Hispanic individuals showed a significant early decline from 1999–2001 (APC: –12.21%; p = 0.00). Regionally, the Midwest reported the highest AAMR (1.07), followed by the South (1.02), West (0.92), and Northeast (0.83). Large fringe metropolitan areas demonstrated a significant decline from 1999–2014 (APC: –8.17%; p = 0.00). State-level AAMRs ranged from 1.46 in Wyoming to 0.83 in Maryland.
CONCLUSION:
AIVD-related mortality in the United States has declined substantially over the past 25 years, likely reflecting improvements in diagnostic recognition and therapeutic strategies. Persistent demographic, geographic, and urbanization-related disparities highlight the need for targeted preventive interventions and equitable access to advanced diagnostic resources for high-risk populations.
BACKGROUND:
Acute intestinal vascular disorders (AIVDs) are uncommon but highly fatal events caused by abrupt interruption of intestinal blood flow. Their nonspecific symptoms(nausea, vomiting, and abdominal pain) often delay diagnosis, leading to poor outcomes, particularly in older adults. Despite advances in imaging and critical care, long-term mortality patterns remain underexplored. This study evaluates 25-year mortality trends and demographic disparities in AIVD-related deaths in the United States using CDC WONDER data from 1999–2023.
METHODS:
AIVD-related deaths (ICD-10 K55.0) among adults aged ≥25 years were extracted from the CDC WONDER Single Cause of Death database (1999–2023). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 population were calculated and stratified by year, sex, race/ethnicity, and U.S. Census region. Temporal trends were evaluated using Joinpoint Regression to calculate annual percent change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals. Statistical significance was defined as p < 0.05. Mortality forecasts were generated using an exponential smoothing (ETS) model.
RESULTS:
A total of 50,861 AIVD-related deaths occurred in the United States from 1999–2023. The AAMR declined from 2.24 (95% CI: 2.23–2.25) to 0.49 (95% CI: 0.48–0.50), with projections suggesting a continued decline approaching zero by 2040. Females consistently demonstrated higher mortality than males (2.48 vs. 1.89 in 1999; 0.54 vs. 0.42 in 2023) and showed a significant decline from 2001–2015 (APC: –7.27%; p = 0.004). Black individuals exhibited the highest overall AAMR (1.004) but experienced a significant decline from 2007–2019 (APC: –5.8%; p = 0.018). Non-Hispanic individuals showed a significant early decline from 1999–2001 (APC: –12.21%; p = 0.00). Regionally, the Midwest reported the highest AAMR (1.07), followed by the South (1.02), West (0.92), and Northeast (0.83). Large fringe metropolitan areas demonstrated a significant decline from 1999–2014 (APC: –8.17%; p = 0.00). State-level AAMRs ranged from 1.46 in Wyoming to 0.83 in Maryland.
CONCLUSION:
AIVD-related mortality in the United States has declined substantially over the past 25 years, likely reflecting improvements in diagnostic recognition and therapeutic strategies. Persistent demographic, geographic, and urbanization-related disparities highlight the need for targeted preventive interventions and equitable access to advanced diagnostic resources for high-risk populations.
Acute intestinal vascular disorders (AIVDs) are uncommon but highly fatal events caused by abrupt interruption of intestinal blood flow. Their nonspecific symptoms(nausea, vomiting, and abdominal pain) often delay diagnosis, leading to poor outcomes, particularly in older adults. Despite advances in imaging and critical care, long-term mortality patterns remain underexplored. This study evaluates 25-year mortality trends and demographic disparities in AIVD-related deaths in the United States using CDC WONDER data from 1999–2023.
METHODS:
AIVD-related deaths (ICD-10 K55.0) among adults aged ≥25 years were extracted from the CDC WONDER Single Cause of Death database (1999–2023). Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) per 100,000 population were calculated and stratified by year, sex, race/ethnicity, and U.S. Census region. Temporal trends were evaluated using Joinpoint Regression to calculate annual percent change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals. Statistical significance was defined as p < 0.05. Mortality forecasts were generated using an exponential smoothing (ETS) model.
RESULTS:
A total of 50,861 AIVD-related deaths occurred in the United States from 1999–2023. The AAMR declined from 2.24 (95% CI: 2.23–2.25) to 0.49 (95% CI: 0.48–0.50), with projections suggesting a continued decline approaching zero by 2040. Females consistently demonstrated higher mortality than males (2.48 vs. 1.89 in 1999; 0.54 vs. 0.42 in 2023) and showed a significant decline from 2001–2015 (APC: –7.27%; p = 0.004). Black individuals exhibited the highest overall AAMR (1.004) but experienced a significant decline from 2007–2019 (APC: –5.8%; p = 0.018). Non-Hispanic individuals showed a significant early decline from 1999–2001 (APC: –12.21%; p = 0.00). Regionally, the Midwest reported the highest AAMR (1.07), followed by the South (1.02), West (0.92), and Northeast (0.83). Large fringe metropolitan areas demonstrated a significant decline from 1999–2014 (APC: –8.17%; p = 0.00). State-level AAMRs ranged from 1.46 in Wyoming to 0.83 in Maryland.
CONCLUSION:
AIVD-related mortality in the United States has declined substantially over the past 25 years, likely reflecting improvements in diagnostic recognition and therapeutic strategies. Persistent demographic, geographic, and urbanization-related disparities highlight the need for targeted preventive interventions and equitable access to advanced diagnostic resources for high-risk populations.
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